Stuart Macgregor v Mike Harris (Sat 06 Apr 2019)
Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 2-11,2-11,1-11.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
19,276, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for
Mike Harris:
20,718, level confidence: 64%.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Mike Harris won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played
560% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Harris actually played at a level of
51,340 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
7,779. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 148% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to +115% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -140%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes +18.7% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -22%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mike Harris is limited to +6.4% and Stuart Macgregor is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 80%, Stuart Macgregor: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 32%, Stuart Macgregor: 29%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
18,358, level confidence: 29%.
Final level for Mike Harris:
22,049, level confidence: 32%.