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Ashley Davies v Babatunde Ajagbe (Wed 03 Apr 2019)

Match won by Ashley Davies. Result: 11-2,11-9,14-16,11-3.

Starting level for Ashley Davies: 17,279, level confidence: 30%.
Starting level for Babatunde Ajagbe: 16,254, level confidence: 65%.
Ashley Davies to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Babatunde Ajagbe.

Ashley Davies won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ashley Davies played 35% better than Babatunde Ajagbe in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ashley Davies actually played at a level of 19,504 and Babatunde Ajagbe at a level of 14,400. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ashley Davies changes to +12% and Babatunde Ajagbe changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ashley Davies becomes +3.3% and for Babatunde Ajagbe becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Rochester Pro Am' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ashley Davies: 55%, Babatunde Ajagbe: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ashley Davies: 48%, Babatunde Ajagbe: 72%.

Final level for Ashley Davies: 17,856, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Babatunde Ajagbe: 15,954, level confidence: 72%.