Ashley Davies v Babatunde Ajagbe (Wed 03 Apr 2019)
Match won by Ashley Davies. Result: 11-2,11-9,14-16,11-3.
Starting level for
Ashley Davies:
17,279, level confidence: 30%.
Starting level for
Babatunde Ajagbe:
16,254, level confidence: 65%.
Ashley Davies to win as he is currently playing
6% better than Babatunde Ajagbe.
Ashley Davies won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ashley Davies played
35% better than Babatunde Ajagbe in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ashley Davies actually played at a level of
19,504 and Babatunde Ajagbe at a level of
14,400. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ashley Davies changes to +12% and Babatunde Ajagbe changes to -5.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ashley Davies becomes +3.3% and for Babatunde Ajagbe becomes -1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Rochester Pro Am' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ashley Davies: 55%, Babatunde Ajagbe: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ashley Davies: 48%, Babatunde Ajagbe: 72%.
Final level for Ashley Davies:
17,856, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Babatunde Ajagbe:
15,954, level confidence: 72%.