Stuart Macgregor v Robert Downer (Wed 03 Apr 2019)
Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-6,9-11,9-11,11-4,11-9.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
18,485, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for
Robert Downer:
19,756, level confidence: 57%.
Robert Downer to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Stuart Macgregor won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played
14% better than Robert Downer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of
20,368 and Robert Downer at a level of
17,930. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +9.8% and Robert Downer changes to -9.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +2.8% and for Robert Downer becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Scottish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 74%, Robert Downer: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 67%, Robert Downer: 69%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
18,995, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Robert Downer:
19,249, level confidence: 69%.