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Stuart Macgregor v Robert Downer (Wed 03 Apr 2019)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-6,9-11,9-11,11-4,11-9.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,485, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Robert Downer: 19,756, level confidence: 57%.
Robert Downer to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Stuart Macgregor won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 14% better than Robert Downer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 20,368 and Robert Downer at a level of 17,930. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +9.8% and Robert Downer changes to -9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +2.8% and for Robert Downer becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Scottish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 74%, Robert Downer: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 67%, Robert Downer: 69%.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,995, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Robert Downer: 19,249, level confidence: 69%.