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Ashley Davies v Noah Browne (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Ashley Davies. Result: 11-9,11-1,9-11,12-10.

Starting level for Ashley Davies: 17,836, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Noah Browne: 13,298, level confidence: 61%.
Ashley Davies to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Noah Browne.

Ashley Davies won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ashley Davies played 30% better than Noah Browne in this match.

In this case, Ashley Davies played at level 17,285 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ashley Davies would normally have been playing at level 17,345 (based on typical behaviour), Noah Browne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ashley Davies changes to 0% and Noah Browne changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ashley Davies becomes 0% and for Noah Browne becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Rochester Pro Am' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ashley Davies: 69%, Noah Browne: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ashley Davies: 68%, Noah Browne: 77%.

Final level for Ashley Davies: 17,836, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Noah Browne: 13,313, level confidence: 77%.