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Alan Clyne v Stuart Macgregor (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 36,477, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 19,162, level confidence: 67%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Alan Clyne won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 154% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 42,123 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 16,594. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +10.7% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +2.6% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Scottish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 83%, Stuart Macgregor: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 72%, Stuart Macgregor: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 37,421, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,605, level confidence: 71%.