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Jesus Camacho v Ashley Davies (Fri 05 Apr 2019)

Match won by Jesus Camacho. Result: 9-11,16-14,7-11,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Jesus Camacho: 29,405, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Ashley Davies: 17,979, level confidence: 68%.
Jesus Camacho to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Ashley Davies.

Jesus Camacho won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jesus Camacho played 8% better than Ashley Davies in this match.

As Jesus Camacho has played below his allowed range at 22,288, his level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that Jesus Camacho would normally have been playing at level 27,431 (based on typical behaviour), Ashley Davies played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jesus Camacho changes to -11% and Ashley Davies changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jesus Camacho becomes -2.8% and for Ashley Davies becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Rochester Pro Am' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jesus Camacho: 78%, Ashley Davies: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jesus Camacho: 63%, Ashley Davies: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jesus Camacho: 28,592, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Ashley Davies: 18,594, level confidence: 67%.