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Edmon Lopez Moller v Bernat Jaume (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 33,362, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Bernat Jaume: 29,222, level confidence: 65%.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Bernat Jaume.

Edmon Lopez Moller won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 120% better than Bernat Jaume in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of 46,312 and Bernat Jaume at a level of 21,051. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +31% and Bernat Jaume changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +6.1% and for Bernat Jaume becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Scottish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Bernat Jaume is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 87%, Bernat Jaume: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 63%, Bernat Jaume: 58%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 35,169, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Bernat Jaume: 28,437, level confidence: 58%.