Gary Wheadon v James Peach (Wed 10 Apr 2019)
Match won by James Peach. Result: 3-11,3-11,9-11.
Starting level for
Gary Wheadon:
15,483, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
James Peach:
16,035, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Gary Wheadon.
James Peach won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played
120% better than Gary Wheadon in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of
23,371 and Gary Wheadon at a level of
10,623. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +38% and Gary Wheadon changes to -45%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +8.3% and for Gary Wheadon becomes -9.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for '2019 West Rand PSA Open (Closed Satellite)' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Peach is limited to +6.9% and Gary Wheadon is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 88%, Gary Wheadon: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 61%, Gary Wheadon: 56%.
Final level for Gary Wheadon:
14,746, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for James Peach:
17,148, level confidence: 61%.