SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Peter Marshall v David Evans (Mon 08 Apr 2019)

Retired pro result: David Evans[1085]. Match type: Senior Legends. Last pro match: 2004-07-25 00:00:00. Now: 2019-04-08 19:00:00. Days since: 5371
Match won by Peter Marshall. Result: 11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Peter Marshall: 18,270, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Evans: 20,145, level confidence: 70%.
David Evans to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Peter Marshall.

Peter Marshall won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Marshall played 120% better than David Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Marshall actually played at a level of 28,455 and David Evans at a level of 12,934. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 56% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 37% and 37% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Marshall changes to +34% and David Evans changes to -37%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Marshall becomes +7.4% and for David Evans becomes -10.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Legends' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Peter Marshall is limited to +6.7% and David Evans is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Marshall: 87%, David Evans: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Marshall: 56%, David Evans: 54%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Marshall: 19,537, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for David Evans: 19,234, level confidence: 54%.