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Peter Marshall v John White (Tue 09 Apr 2019)

Match won by Peter Marshall. Result: 11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Peter Marshall: 19,668, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for John White: 18,588, level confidence: 61%.
Peter Marshall to win as he is currently playing 6% better than John White.

Peter Marshall won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Marshall played 69% better than John White in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Marshall actually played at a level of 24,873 and John White at a level of 14,698. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Marshall changes to +19% and John White changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Marshall becomes +4.5% and for John White becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Legends' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Marshall: 75%, John White: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Marshall: 59%, John White: 62%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Marshall: 20,599, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for John White: 18,257, level confidence: 62%.