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Harry Falconer v Stuart Macgregor (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-6,11-4,6-11,9-11,12-10.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 19,497, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,517, level confidence: 29%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Harry Falconer won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 12% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 20,078 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 17,981. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +1.2% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +0.5% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'NW Counties Division Playoffs 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 83%, Stuart Macgregor: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 81%, Stuart Macgregor: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,570, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,257, level confidence: 52%.