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Peter Creed v Oliver Griffiths (Thu 18 Apr 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-4,11-1,11-7.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 26,020, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Oliver Griffiths: 4,231, level confidence: 67%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 515% better than Oliver Griffiths.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 175% better than Oliver Griffiths in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 48%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,990 and 26,020 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 12,554 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 13,546 (based on typical behaviour), Oliver Griffiths played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to 0% and Oliver Griffiths changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes 0% and for Oliver Griffiths becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for Peter Creed is 0% and for Oliver Griffiths is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 89%, Oliver Griffiths: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 60%, Oliver Griffiths: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 25,981, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Oliver Griffiths: 4,284, level confidence: 55%.