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Adrian Waller v Youssef Soliman (Sun 21 Apr 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-1,11-5,10-12,11-5.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 43,557, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 39,260, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Youssef Soliman.

Adrian Waller won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 87% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 45% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of 49,872 and Youssef Soliman at a level of 34,289. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +14% and Youssef Soliman changes to -10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +3% and for Youssef Soliman becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 79%, Youssef Soliman: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 69%, Youssef Soliman: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 44,672, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 38,381, level confidence: 76%.