James Peach v Ruan Olivier (Mon 22 Apr 2019)
Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-9.
Starting level for
James Peach:
16,493, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Ruan Olivier:
8,385, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing
97% better than Ruan Olivier.
James Peach won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played
65% better than Ruan Olivier in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Peach was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,832 and 16,493 without affecting his level.
In this case, James Peach played at level 14,187 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 14,548 (based on typical behaviour), Ruan Olivier played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to 0% and Ruan Olivier changes to +1.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes 0% and for Ruan Olivier becomes +0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Johannesburg Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 79%, Ruan Olivier: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 73%, Ruan Olivier: 77%.
Final level for James Peach:
16,493, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Ruan Olivier:
8,454, level confidence: 77%.