Peter Creed v Christopher Gordon (Wed 24 Apr 2019)
Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-6.
Starting level for
Peter Creed:
25,985, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Christopher Gordon:
22,651, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Christopher Gordon.
Peter Creed won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played
56% better than Christopher Gordon in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of
30,344 and Christopher Gordon at a level of
19,397. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +16% and Christopher Gordon changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +3.7% and for Christopher Gordon becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 76%, Christopher Gordon: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 65%, Christopher Gordon: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Peter Creed:
26,787, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Christopher Gordon:
22,069, level confidence: 73%.