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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Benjamin Aubert (Thu 25 Apr 2019)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 7-11,14-12,11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,963, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Benjamin Aubert: 29,950, level confidence: 70%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Benjamin Aubert.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 23% better than Benjamin Aubert in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of 35,913 and Benjamin Aubert at a level of 29,158. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +2.4% and Benjamin Aubert changes to -2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +0.9% and for Benjamin Aubert becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 85%, Benjamin Aubert: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 83%, Benjamin Aubert: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,116, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Benjamin Aubert: 29,795, level confidence: 81%.