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Adrian Waller v Ben Coleman (Sat 27 Apr 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-8,12-10.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 44,673, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 29,529, level confidence: 68%.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Ben Coleman.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 37% better than Ben Coleman in this match.

In this case, Adrian Waller played at level 41,399 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Adrian Waller would normally have been playing at level 42,440 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Coleman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to 0% and Ben Coleman changes to +1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes 0% and for Ben Coleman becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'English National Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 71%, Ben Coleman: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 68%, Ben Coleman: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 44,510, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 29,800, level confidence: 78%.