Campbell Grayson v Mahesh Mangaonkar (Sat 27 Apr 2019)
Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-7.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
33,847, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
35,588, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Campbell Grayson.
Campbell Grayson won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played
56% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of
43,409 and Mahesh Mangaonkar at a level of
27,749. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +27% and Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -27%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +5.4% and for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -5.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 92%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 72%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
35,493, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
33,941, level confidence: 71%.