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Miles Jenkins v Oliver Pett (Sun 28 Apr 2019)

Match won by Miles Jenkins. Result: 8-11,1-11,11-8,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 20,342, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Oliver Pett: 22,058, level confidence: 68%.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Miles Jenkins.

Miles Jenkins won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jenkins played 6% better than Oliver Pett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miles Jenkins actually played at a level of 21,792 and Oliver Pett at a level of 20,591. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins changes to +6.8% and Oliver Pett changes to -6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins becomes +2.1% and for Oliver Pett becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'English National Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jenkins: 81%, Oliver Pett: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jenkins: 76%, Oliver Pett: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miles Jenkins: 20,768, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Oliver Pett: 21,250, level confidence: 77%.