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Alastair Hill v Tim Casey (Fri 03 May 2019)

Match won by Alastair Hill. Result: 11-7,11-7,10-12,11-9.

Starting level for Alastair Hill: 12,210, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Tim Casey: 955, level confidence: 10%.
Alastair Hill to win as he is currently playing 1179% better than Tim Casey.

Alastair Hill won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alastair Hill played 24% better than Tim Casey in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alastair Hill was taking it easy by anything up to 64%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,592 and 12,210 without affecting his level.

As Alastair Hill has played below his allowed range at 1,375, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Alastair Hill would normally have been playing at level 4,408 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Casey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 93%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alastair Hill changes to -4.2% and Tim Casey changes to +20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alastair Hill becomes -1.7% and for Tim Casey becomes +11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Club Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alastair Hill: 32%, Tim Casey: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alastair Hill: 10%, Tim Casey: 10%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alastair Hill: 11,985, level confidence: 10%.
Final level for Tim Casey: 1,061, level confidence: 10%.