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Iker Pajares Bernabeu v Peter Creed (Sat 27 Apr 2019)

Match won by Iker Pajares Bernabeu. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 35,812, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,521, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Iker Pajares Bernabeu to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Peter Creed.

Iker Pajares Bernabeu won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares Bernabeu played 65% better than Peter Creed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Iker Pajares Bernabeu actually played at a level of 40,326 and Peter Creed at a level of 24,440. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +10.7% and Peter Creed changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +2.6% and for Peter Creed becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 86%, Peter Creed: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 76%, Peter Creed: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 36,574, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 26,993, level confidence: 75%.