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Edmon Lopez Moller v Emyr Evans (Sat 27 Apr 2019)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-4,14-12,13-11.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 36,090, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 24,662, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Emyr Evans.

Edmon Lopez Moller won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 45% better than Emyr Evans in this match.

In this case, Edmon Lopez Moller played at level 35,870 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Emyr Evans is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 88%, Emyr Evans: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 88%, Emyr Evans: 94%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 36,104, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 24,710, level confidence: 94%.