James Peach v Ruan Olivier (Mon 29 Apr 2019)
Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-8,11-5,9-11,11-7.
Starting level for
James Peach:
16,493, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ruan Olivier:
8,517, level confidence: 60%.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing
94% better than Ruan Olivier.
James Peach won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played
28% better than Ruan Olivier in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Peach was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,976 and 16,493 without affecting his level.
As James Peach has played below his allowed range at 11,915, his level reduction is 8.9% before damping. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 14,629 (based on typical behaviour), Ruan Olivier played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 11% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to -4.6% and Ruan Olivier changes to +11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes -1.7% and for Ruan Olivier becomes +3.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for '2019 Keith Grainger Memorial UCT Squash Open Championships (PSA)' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 90%, Ruan Olivier: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 73%, Ruan Olivier: 63%.
Final level for James Peach:
16,216, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Ruan Olivier:
8,818, level confidence: 63%.