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Edmon Lopez Moller v Victor Crouin (Tue 30 Apr 2019)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 9-11,11-7,8-11,11-7,11-1.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 34,558, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Victor Crouin: 34,624, level confidence: 58%.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Edmon Lopez Moller.

Edmon Lopez Moller won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 16% better than Victor Crouin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of 37,301 and Victor Crouin at a level of 32,078. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +6.3% and Victor Crouin changes to -7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +1.8% and for Victor Crouin becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 85%, Victor Crouin: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 79%, Victor Crouin: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 35,135, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Victor Crouin: 33,977, level confidence: 71%.