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Leo Au v James Huang (Wed 01 May 2019)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 12-10,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Leo Au: 38,901, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for James Huang: 19,897, level confidence: 52%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 96% better than James Huang.

Leo Au won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 100% better than James Huang in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 39,345 and James Huang at a level of 19,672. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +0.6% and James Huang changes to -0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +0.2% and for James Huang becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 81%, James Huang: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 81%, James Huang: 72%.

Final level for Leo Au: 38,997, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for James Huang: 19,827, level confidence: 72%.