Leo Au v James Huang (Wed 01 May 2019)
Match won by Leo Au. Result: 12-10,11-3,11-4.
Starting level for
Leo Au:
38,901, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
James Huang:
19,897, level confidence: 52%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing
96% better than James Huang.
Leo Au won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played
100% better than James Huang in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of
39,345 and James Huang at a level of
19,672. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +0.6% and James Huang changes to -0.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +0.2% and for James Huang becomes -0.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 81%, James Huang: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 81%, James Huang: 72%.
Final level for Leo Au:
38,997, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for James Huang:
19,827, level confidence: 72%.