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Peter Creed v Yannik Omlor (Thu 02 May 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-6,11-13,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 28,382, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Yannik Omlor: 15,625, level confidence: 37%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Yannik Omlor.

Peter Creed won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 28% better than Yannik Omlor in this match.

As Peter Creed has played below his allowed range at 21,563, his level reduction is 8% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 25,712 (based on typical behaviour), Yannik Omlor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to -2.9% and Yannik Omlor changes to +9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes -1.2% and for Yannik Omlor becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 85%, Yannik Omlor: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 71%, Yannik Omlor: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 28,008, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Yannik Omlor: 16,047, level confidence: 51%.