James Peach v Robert Downer (Tue 07 May 2019)
Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-9,11-9,11-6.
Starting level for
James Peach:
15,842, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Robert Downer:
18,942, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Robert Downer to win as he is currently playing
20% better than James Peach.
James Peach won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played
43% better than Robert Downer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of
20,735 and Robert Downer at a level of
14,472. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +28% and Robert Downer changes to -25%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +6.5% and for Robert Downer becomes -5.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Robert Downer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 86%, Robert Downer: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 66%, Robert Downer: 69%.
Final level for James Peach:
16,867, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Robert Downer:
18,040, level confidence: 69%.