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Harry Falconer v Mark Fuller (Tue 07 May 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 13-11,11-7,8-11,4-11,11-5.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 19,288, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Fuller: 19,082, level confidence: 68%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Mark Fuller.

Harry Falconer won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 9% better than Mark Fuller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 19,994 and Mark Fuller at a level of 18,409. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +3.4% and Mark Fuller changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +1.4% and for Mark Fuller becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 85%, Mark Fuller: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 82%, Mark Fuller: 79%.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,556, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Mark Fuller: 18,807, level confidence: 79%.