Harry Falconer v Mark Fuller (Tue 07 May 2019)
Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 13-11,11-7,8-11,4-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
19,288, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mark Fuller:
19,082, level confidence: 68%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Mark Fuller.
Harry Falconer won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played
9% better than Mark Fuller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of
19,994 and Mark Fuller at a level of
18,409. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +3.4% and Mark Fuller changes to -3.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +1.4% and for Mark Fuller becomes -1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 85%, Mark Fuller: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 82%, Mark Fuller: 79%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
19,556, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Mark Fuller:
18,807, level confidence: 79%.