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Benjamin Aubert v James Peach (Wed 08 May 2019)

Match won by Benjamin Aubert. Result: 10-12,11-5,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Benjamin Aubert: 29,481, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Peach: 16,870, level confidence: 66%.
Benjamin Aubert to win as he is currently playing 75% better than James Peach.

Benjamin Aubert won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Benjamin Aubert played 43% better than James Peach in this match.

As Benjamin Aubert has played below his allowed range at 24,429, his level reduction is 1.4% before damping. On the assumption that Benjamin Aubert would normally have been playing at level 27,017 (based on typical behaviour), James Peach played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert changes to -0.9% and James Peach changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert becomes -0.4% and for James Peach becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Benjamin Aubert: 85%, James Peach: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Benjamin Aubert: 77%, James Peach: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Benjamin Aubert: 29,371, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for James Peach: 17,148, level confidence: 73%.