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Emyr Evans v Harry Falconer (Wed 08 May 2019)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 9-11,11-6,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 26,791, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 19,563, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Harry Falconer.

Emyr Evans won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 32% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

In this case, Emyr Evans played at level 25,846 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Emyr Evans would normally have been playing at level 25,958 (based on typical behaviour), Harry Falconer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to 0% and Harry Falconer changes to +0.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes 0% and for Harry Falconer becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 84%, Harry Falconer: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 82%, Harry Falconer: 89%.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 26,791, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,590, level confidence: 89%.