Edmon Lopez Moller v Stuart Macgregor (Wed 08 May 2019)
Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-7,11-1,11-2.
Starting level for
Edmon Lopez Moller:
35,135, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
18,458, level confidence: 64%.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing
90% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Edmon Lopez Moller won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played
230% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of
46,261 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
14,019. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +18% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -22%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +4% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 87%, Stuart Macgregor: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 66%, Stuart Macgregor: 61%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller:
36,528, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
17,579, level confidence: 61%.