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Edmon Lopez Moller v Stuart Macgregor (Wed 08 May 2019)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-7,11-1,11-2.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 35,135, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,458, level confidence: 64%.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Edmon Lopez Moller won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 230% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of 46,261 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 14,019. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +18% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +4% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 87%, Stuart Macgregor: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 66%, Stuart Macgregor: 61%.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 36,528, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,579, level confidence: 61%.