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Jordan Hardwick v Chris Hall (Mon 13 May 2019)

Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 6-11,4-11,1-11.

Starting level for Jordan Hardwick: 9,142, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Chris Hall: 21,351, level confidence: 62%.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing 134% better than Jordan Hardwick.

Chris Hall won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played 200% better than Jordan Hardwick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hall actually played at a level of 24,199 and Jordan Hardwick at a level of 8,066. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.5% and 8.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hall changes to +8.2% and Jordan Hardwick changes to -8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hall becomes +2.3% and for Jordan Hardwick becomes -2.9%.

Given Chris Hall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 99% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jordan Hardwick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Chris Hall is +0.8% and for Jordan Hardwick is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 79%, Jordan Hardwick: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 69%, Jordan Hardwick: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jordan Hardwick: 8,999, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Chris Hall: 21,483, level confidence: 69%.