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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Cesar Salazar (Mon 13 May 2019)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,891, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 39,719, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 47% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of 45,821 and Cesar Salazar at a level of 31,111. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +26% and Cesar Salazar changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +5.3% and for Cesar Salazar becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 71%, Cesar Salazar: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 56%, Cesar Salazar: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 37,631, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar: 38,526, level confidence: 69%.