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Lyell Fuller v Marwan Mahmoud (Wed 15 May 2019)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 22,216, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Marwan Mahmoud: 10,845, level confidence: 29%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 105% better than Marwan Mahmoud.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 65% better than Marwan Mahmoud in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyell Fuller was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,805 and 22,216 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lyell Fuller played at level 18,594 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lyell Fuller would normally have been playing at level 19,322 (based on typical behaviour), Marwan Mahmoud played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to 0% and Marwan Mahmoud changes to +2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes 0% and for Marwan Mahmoud becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cityview Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 70%, Marwan Mahmoud: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 63%, Marwan Mahmoud: 48%.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 22,216, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Marwan Mahmoud: 10,989, level confidence: 48%.