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Ryosei Kobayashi v Lyell Fuller (Fri 17 May 2019)

Match won by Ryosei Kobayashi. Result: 11-6,4-11,11-7,11-1.

Starting level for Ryosei Kobayashi: 16,459, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 22,216, level confidence: 62%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Ryosei Kobayashi.

Ryosei Kobayashi won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryosei Kobayashi played 33% better than Lyell Fuller in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryosei Kobayashi actually played at a level of 22,019 and Lyell Fuller at a level of 16,607. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryosei Kobayashi changes to +25% and Lyell Fuller changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryosei Kobayashi becomes +5.9% and for Lyell Fuller becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cityview Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lyell Fuller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryosei Kobayashi: 83%, Lyell Fuller: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryosei Kobayashi: 62%, Lyell Fuller: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryosei Kobayashi: 17,436, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller: 21,561, level confidence: 59%.