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Richie Fallows v Tony Gamble (Sat 25 May 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-8.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 33,371, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Tony Gamble: 1,319, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 2430% better than Tony Gamble.

Richie Fallows won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 120% better than Tony Gamble in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richie Fallows was taking it easy by anything up to 74%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,198 and 33,371 without affecting his level.

In this case, Richie Fallows played at level 4,985 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 8,565 (based on typical behaviour), Tony Gamble played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 72%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to 0% and Tony Gamble changes to +9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes 0% and for Tony Gamble becomes +5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Danny Gamble Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 84%, Tony Gamble: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 25%, Tony Gamble: 27%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 33,321, level confidence: 25%.
Final level for Tony Gamble: 1,388, level confidence: 27%.