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Richie Fallows v Alisdair Shapcott (Sat 25 May 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-8,5-11,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 33,321, level confidence: 25%.
Starting level for Alisdair Shapcott: 7,638, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 336% better than Alisdair Shapcott.

Richie Fallows won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 24% better than Alisdair Shapcott in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richie Fallows was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,029 and 33,321 without affecting his level.

As Richie Fallows has played below his allowed range at 11,118, his level reduction is 17% before damping. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 20,836 (based on typical behaviour), Alisdair Shapcott played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 48%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to -7.9% and Alisdair Shapcott changes to +6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes -2.1% and for Alisdair Shapcott becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Danny Gamble Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 50%, Alisdair Shapcott: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 26%, Alisdair Shapcott: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 32,577, level confidence: 26%.
Final level for Alisdair Shapcott: 7,806, level confidence: 49%.