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Richie Fallows v Perry Malik (Sat 25 May 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 7-11,11-6,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 32,577, level confidence: 26%.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 13,845, level confidence: 68%.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 135% better than Perry Malik.

Richie Fallows won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 25% better than Perry Malik in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richie Fallows was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,519 and 32,577 without affecting his level.

As Richie Fallows has played below his allowed range at 19,741, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 27,085 (based on typical behaviour), Perry Malik played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to -9% and Perry Malik changes to +6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes -2.3% and for Perry Malik becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Danny Gamble Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 51%, Perry Malik: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 37%, Perry Malik: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 31,784, level confidence: 37%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 14,116, level confidence: 60%.