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Simon Herbert v Ben Smith (Sun 26 May 2019)

Match won by Ben Smith. Result: 8-11,1-11,11-5,7-11.

Starting level for Simon Herbert: 14,473, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Smith: 17,140, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Ben Smith to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Simon Herbert.

Ben Smith won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Smith played 30% better than Simon Herbert in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Smith actually played at a level of 17,971 and Simon Herbert at a level of 13,803. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Smith changes to +4.4% and Simon Herbert changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Smith becomes +1.6% and for Simon Herbert becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Ipswich Junior Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Smith: 86%, Simon Herbert: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Smith: 82%, Simon Herbert: 89%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Herbert: 14,284, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Ben Smith: 17,466, level confidence: 82%.