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Daryl Selby v Ben Coleman (Tue 21 May 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-9,11-7,6-11,11-4.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 35,550, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 30,452, level confidence: 56%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Ben Coleman.

Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 25% better than Ben Coleman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of 36,825 and Ben Coleman at a level of 29,398. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to +2.4% and Ben Coleman changes to -3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +0.9% and for Ben Coleman becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 87%, Ben Coleman: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 84%, Ben Coleman: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 35,793, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 30,259, level confidence: 72%.