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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Daryl Selby (Thu 23 May 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-2.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 61,685, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 36,746, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Daryl Selby.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 267% better than Daryl Selby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 91,166 and Daryl Selby at a level of 24,863. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 48% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +32% and Daryl Selby changes to -35%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +5.7% and for Daryl Selby becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mohamed Elshorbagy is limited to +4.6% and Daryl Selby is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 92%, Daryl Selby: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 62%, Daryl Selby: 60%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 64,503, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 35,805, level confidence: 60%.