Harry Falconer v Julian Tomlinson (Tue 28 May 2019)
Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-4.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
19,910, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Julian Tomlinson:
13,324, level confidence: 38%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing
49% better than Julian Tomlinson.
Harry Falconer won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played
94% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of
22,693 and Julian Tomlinson at a level of
11,690. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +5.3% and Julian Tomlinson changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +1.8% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tel Aviv Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 89%, Julian Tomlinson: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 78%, Julian Tomlinson: 54%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
20,266, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson:
12,900, level confidence: 54%.