Harry Falconer v Mark Fuller (Wed 29 May 2019)
Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 6-11,11-9,11-7,11-9.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
20,234, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mark Fuller:
19,951, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Mark Fuller.
Harry Falconer won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played
20% better than Mark Fuller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of
21,964 and Mark Fuller at a level of
18,380. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +7.9% and Mark Fuller changes to -8.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +2.3% and for Mark Fuller becomes -2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tel Aviv Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 88%, Mark Fuller: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 81%, Mark Fuller: 79%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
20,704, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Mark Fuller:
19,471, level confidence: 79%.