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Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Muhammad Asim Khan (Thu 30 May 2019)

Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 11-9,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 30,715, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 23,087, level confidence: 45%.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Muhammad Asim Khan.

Jan Van Den Herrewegen won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played 83% better than Muhammad Asim Khan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Van Den Herrewegen actually played at a level of 36,056 and Muhammad Asim Khan at a level of 19,667. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to +8.3% and Muhammad Asim Khan changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes +2.2% and for Muhammad Asim Khan becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montpellier Metropole Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 89%, Muhammad Asim Khan: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 76%, Muhammad Asim Khan: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 31,312, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 22,464, level confidence: 57%.