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Sebastien Bonmalais v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Fri 31 May 2019)

Match won by Sebastien Bonmalais. Result: 8-11,11-8,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 25,963, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 31,007, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Sebastien Bonmalais.

Sebastien Bonmalais won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastien Bonmalais played 32% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sebastien Bonmalais actually played at a level of 32,607 and Jan Van Den Herrewegen at a level of 24,689. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais changes to +23% and Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes +5.1% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montpellier Metropole Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastien Bonmalais: 79%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastien Bonmalais: 63%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 27,213, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 30,422, level confidence: 69%.