Shehab Essam v Lyell Fuller (Fri 31 May 2019)
Match won by Shehab Essam. Result: 11-9,11-9,10-12,13-11.
Starting level for
Shehab Essam:
27,918, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lyell Fuller:
24,257, level confidence: 53%.
Shehab Essam to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Lyell Fuller.
Shehab Essam won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shehab Essam played
20% better than Lyell Fuller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shehab Essam actually played at a level of
28,503 and Lyell Fuller at a level of
23,759. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shehab Essam changes to +1.5% and Lyell Fuller changes to -2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shehab Essam becomes +0.6% and for Lyell Fuller becomes -0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Philadelphia Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shehab Essam: 84%, Lyell Fuller: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shehab Essam: 82%, Lyell Fuller: 71%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Shehab Essam:
28,021, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller:
24,200, level confidence: 71%.