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James Wyatt v Neil Cordell (Wed 05 Jun 2019)

Match won by James Wyatt. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for James Wyatt: 13,506, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Neil Cordell: 18,272, level confidence: 44%.
Neil Cordell to win as he is currently playing 35% better than James Wyatt.

James Wyatt won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Wyatt played 154% better than Neil Cordell in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Wyatt actually played at a level of 25,029 and Neil Cordell at a level of 9,860. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 85% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 70% and 70% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Wyatt changes to +52% and Neil Cordell changes to -70%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Wyatt becomes +11.2% and for Neil Cordell becomes -13%.

Given James Wyatt's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 56% has been applied to his level change.

Given Neil Cordell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 82% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for James Wyatt is +4.7% and for Neil Cordell is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Wyatt: 77%, Neil Cordell: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Wyatt: 41%, Neil Cordell: 36%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Wyatt: 14,116, level confidence: 41%.
Final level for Neil Cordell: 17,485, level confidence: 36%.