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Lyell Fuller v Man Tong Chua (Wed 05 Jun 2019)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 24,218, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Man Tong Chua: 8,902, level confidence: 56%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 172% better than Man Tong Chua.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 56% better than Man Tong Chua in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyell Fuller was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,019 and 24,218 without affecting his level.

As Lyell Fuller has played below his allowed range at 14,462, his level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that Lyell Fuller would normally have been playing at level 19,072 (based on typical behaviour), Man Tong Chua played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to -1.8% and Man Tong Chua changes to +10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes -0.8% and for Man Tong Chua becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Austrian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 84%, Man Tong Chua: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 63%, Man Tong Chua: 57%.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 24,033, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Man Tong Chua: 9,192, level confidence: 57%.