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Lyell Fuller v Aqeel Rehman (Thu 06 Jun 2019)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 12-10,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 24,122, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Aqeel Rehman: 24,297, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Aqeel Rehman to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Lyell Fuller.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 62% better than Aqeel Rehman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyell Fuller actually played at a level of 30,804 and Aqeel Rehman at a level of 19,026. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to +28% and Aqeel Rehman changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes +5.9% and for Aqeel Rehman becomes -5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Austrian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 80%, Aqeel Rehman: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 62%, Aqeel Rehman: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 25,400, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Aqeel Rehman: 23,274, level confidence: 67%.