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Miko ??Ijänen v Lyell Fuller (Sat 08 Jun 2019)

Match won by Miko ??Ijänen. Result: 11-13,11-2,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Miko ??Ijänen: 26,387, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 25,153, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Miko ??Ijänen to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Lyell Fuller.

Miko ??Ijänen won 75% of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miko ??Ijänen played 50% better than Lyell Fuller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miko ??Ijänen actually played at a level of 31,526 and Lyell Fuller at a level of 21,053. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miko ??Ijänen changes to +19% and Lyell Fuller changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miko ??Ijänen becomes +4.3% and for Lyell Fuller becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Austrian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miko ??Ijänen: 84%, Lyell Fuller: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miko ??Ijänen: 70%, Lyell Fuller: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miko ??Ijänen: 27,409, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller: 24,682, level confidence: 73%.